Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 60.402654 67.452305 75.506946 85.511596 97.780674 112.579950 132.177690
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 50.330355 59.122211 70.057479 85.069979 105.869820 134.940373 181.380378
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 43.225736 52.208817 63.930434 81.013009 106.597582 146.202081 219.396032
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 40.885307 50.769523 64.310650 85.334772 119.689646 179.837707 315.163771
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 37.711967 47.682842 61.791108 84.670731 124.486837 201.181626 406.184584
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 34.798096 44.587107 58.775066 82.562135 126.074628 216.878375 502.049605
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 31.918083 41.252001 54.995458 78.555413 123.154949 221.737601 573.349054
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 31.426734 41.335785 56.405751 83.473708 138.675638 278.030213 977.755665
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 31.024964 41.489767 57.906171 88.784804 156.820738 356.587250 2032.806499
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 29.935056 40.475671 57.359125 90.142804 166.509991 418.971921 4183.038107
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 28.600464 38.969525 55.823338 89.303585 170.566468 465.634988 9168.008082
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 27.108857 37.113771 53.525067 86.598842 169.034370 488.055286 19921.481188
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 25.764229 35.478081 51.590884 84.645195 169.830632 528.418323 202598.476469
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 24.736228 34.302971 50.389383 84.122116 174.811470 602.447516 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 23.319723 32.406474 47.748158 80.133191 168.338413 599.775126 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 23.127824 32.524155 48.761755 84.379947 189.210215 840.083748 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 22.327597 31.566879 47.701994 83.727565 193.761903 970.707251 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 21.420353 30.380108 46.125269 81.655652 192.667079 1045.469439 NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 20.355937 28.878955 43.865363 77.717163 183.710378 1004.659326 NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 20.365413 29.221151 45.147658 82.551432 210.209485 1645.743159 NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 20.378929 29.567921 46.468456 87.768561 242.491496 3229.186417 NaN
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 19.996930 29.191396 46.312953 89.102007 258.495989 5330.862470 NaN
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 19.439334 28.473152 45.411496 88.277987 263.461810 7508.707874 NaN